The 2024 simultaneous elections are still two years away. However, public discussion has begun to heat up with the dominance of the theme of direct presidential elections (pilpres). This phenomenon makes sense in the presidential system in Indonesia, the position of the president is very strong. The change of a president will be followed by the configuration of the political and business elite around him. Political parties, political forces, and business groups realize the need to immediately maneuver so as not to be late in influencing the presidential contest for the sake of their political and business interests.
Political party figures have also gone on safari, meeting each other, staying in touch, exploring various possibilities. The phenomena currently visible are very dynamic, in process and changing. That's why it's right when
advised his volunteer supporters to "not rush" ( ojo kesusu ) to take a political position in facing the direct presidential election in 2024, even though they already have their presidential candidate preferences, because developments are still very dynamic.
Three Axis Scenario
When viewed from the vote acquisition of political parties from the 2019 election results, no party has pocketed absolute votes. This means that these parties must form a coalition to support the presidential and vice presidential candidates in the 2024 presidential election. Widespread surveys conducted by survey institutions have produced names who have high electability deemed worthy of being nominated in the 2024 presidential election contestation, including: Ganjar Pranowo (GP), Anies Baswedan (AB), Prabowo Subianto (PS), Ridwan Kamil ( RK) Sandiaga Uno (SU) and Erick Tohir (ET).
If we look at the current dynamics and excitement, two or three coalition axes could emerge that will support the presidential and vice presidential candidates. The first axis is the axis that introduces itself as the United Indonesia Coalition. This axis was declared by three parties, namely Golkar which received 12.3% of the vote, PAN with 6.8% of the vote and PPP with 4.5%. Mathematically, the three-party coalition pocketed 22.6% of the vote and could carry the presidential and cawapres candidates. Even though all political parties will currently nominate their party leader as president, public discussion has led to the possibility that this coalition will nominate Ganjar Pranowo (GP) as president, while the vice president is still vacant. It is possible that the vice presidential position will be filled by Airlangga Hartarto, who was nominated by his party, or Erick Tohir, whose popularity is starting to creep up. It was reported that President Jokowi, became king maker in this coalition with the support of those closest to him such as Luhut Panjaitan. The problem lies with Ganjar Pranowo, who until now has not received the blessing of his own party, the PDI-P, which seems inclined to attack the Governor of Central Java.
The second axis is an embryo that was compiled by a group with its king maker Jusuf Kalla (JK) and PDIP Chair Megawati who were not happy with the Ganjar Pranowo movement. JK, a senior politician, two-time vice president and former chairman of Golkar tried to approach the PDIP politically by wanting to pair his champion Anies Baswedan (AB) with the Princess of PDIP, Puan Maharani. AB has the popularity of " the big three”, while Puan was supported by PDIP as the largest party with 19.3% of the vote. JK has sent "his man". Komjenpol (Purn) Syarifudin to lobby Puan during the Umrah service. Anies Baswedan and Puan have also shown signs of their closeness at the Formula event in Ancol. On social media, even viral photos show Puan Maharani's "Muslimhood".
Several pending problems related to the installation of AB with Mrs. First, can the supporters of the two figures who so far have strong ideological polarization be able to unite. At what party level can PKS, as the main party supporting AB Baswedan, which has sharp ideological differences, be able to unite with PDIP? Can Anies' supporters, who have coexisted with Prabowo Subianto's supporters, known as Kampret and Kadrun, be able to mingle with PDIP supporters, who are closely aligned with Jokowi's supporters, known as "Cebong"? It is very possible that the PDIP's move, if true, will make its loyal supporters from nationalist and non-Muslim circles leave this party bearing the white bull's nose. Or for the sake of winning the president, supporters of PDIP loyalists will join the movement "PDIP My Party,
The third Axis embryo was driven by political party bosses, namely Surya Paloh (Nasdem), Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (Democrat), and Prabowo Subianto (Gerindra). In early June, SBY and Prabowo as leaders of the Gerindra party met Surya Paloh to conduct assessments and approaches. These three parties have 29.2% of the votes (Gerindra 12.5, Nasdem 9% and the Democratic Party 7.7%) and are sufficient to carry the presidential and cawapres candidates. If this axis is really formed, it is very possible that Prabowo Subianto, who still has high popularity and electability with the support of the party that has the most votes in this coalition, will be lined up to become a presidential candidate. The strongest possibility is Agus Harimurti (AHY), Prince Cikeas, who has sufficient popularity to accompany Prabowo.
Two Axis Scenario
The three axis scenario above is very likely to turn into two axis near the D-Day. The most likely potential is. The JK-Mega shaft will break. Because this axis has a high ideological vulnerability. If political negotiations and power sharing can be resolved, Megawati's faction is most likely to join the New Indonesia Coalition Axis (KIB) which is already occupied by Golkar, PAN and PPP. It will be difficult for PDIP to join the coalition already occupied by the Democrat Party, due to political psychology problems that are difficult to combine. It will also be difficult for PDIP to join PKS, because ideologically these two parties are like oil and water which are also difficult to combine. It is very possible that PKB, which is still free to join this axis, because PKB leaders are very flexible in politics.
The problem will be who will be the "coalition commander"? Jokowi plus people close to Luhut Panjaitan or Megawati? PDIP and Luhut Panjaitan have so far seemed less harmonious in Jokowi's government coalition. Meanwhile, Anis Baswedan's faction with king maker JK is very likely to join the coalition initiated by Prabowo, SBY and Surya Paloh. This coalition will consist of Gerindra Party, Democratic Party, Nasdem Party and PKS. The Gerindra Party, the Democratic Party and PKS have formed a coalition in the 2019 Presidential Election. The Nasdem Party is also very flexible in its political steps. If it's a two-axis scenario, it's very likely that Prabowo will be paired with Anies Baswedan, who both have high popularity.
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